A new explosive report from JP Morgan was leaked out this week titled “Risky business: the climate and the macroeconomy” warns climate change poses a significant macroeconomic risk to the world economy and could result in a “catastrophic” event.  “The response to climate change should be motivated not only by central estimates of outcomes but also by… Read More

Schiff Is Laying Groundwork for Tying Up Trump’s Second Term in More False Charges Paul Craig Roberts There is no evidence that Russia is interfering in the 2020 US presidential election in order to reelect Trump.  Nor is there any reason for Russia to prefer Trump, who has done nothing for Russia.  Indeed, Trump has… Read More

We certainly don’t have a crystal ball at the ready, and we can’t predict the future. The best we might hope is to entertain reasonable probabilities for it oftentimes derived from how we see the past. Which is just what statistics and econometrics attempt. Except, wherein they go wrong we don’t have to make their… Read More