Submitted by Taps Coogan on the 13th of March 2020 to The Sounding Line.
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As of March 12th, the official number of active Coronavirus cases worldwide, 59,212, has exceeded the peak of the Chinese outbreak on February 17th. Active cases are defined as the number of confirmed infections minus the number that have recovered or died.
The daily change in active infections has surged in recent days, though remains lower than the spike on February 12th, when China confusingly changed the way it diagnosed infections and adjusted its historical tally higher.
While there is significant dispute as to whether or not China’s economy is actually recovering from the outbreak, it does appear that China has made progress in tamping down on the actual Coronavirus outbreak (for now).
Despite some progress in China, there is no sign yet that the rest of the world, and the US and Western Europe in particular, are anywhere near having their situations under control.
For China, it took a total suspension of work, the quarantining of hundreds of millions of people, the banning of being in public without a face mask, mandatory social distancing, and many other dramatic measures to slow the virus. By comparison the steps being implemented in the US, the EU, etc… are modest. It seems doubtful that they will be particularly effective.
In addition, it should go without saying that official statistic are understating the true rate of infection, particularly in countries were widespread testing is just ramping up.
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