Expected Move Indicates Correction is Imminent in this Index

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The NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) continues to make all time highs while continually breaking away from its weekly expected move. Is a correction imminent for the high flyer? Plus other trade set ups to look for this week… The post Expected Move Indicates Correction is Imminent in this Index appeared first on Theo Trade. Source: First… Read More

4 Day Winning Streak Before 4th Of July

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Disappointing Thursday At first glance, it looks like the stock market had a nice day after a solid jobs report. However, the stock market’s reaction was weak because the jobs report is old news. The economy has slowed since the survey week of the BLS report. While the stock market extended its winning streak to… Read More

Economy Is In Reverse

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Economy Slowing? Investors were eagerly awaiting this jobless claims report because the economy appears to have weakened in the 2nd half of June due to COVID-19. There is also the fact that in mid-June we reached the end of most of the states reopening. We had an initial burst every time a state reopened. Those bursts… Read More

What Makes You Think the Stock Market Will Even Exist in 2024?

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Given the extremes of the stock market’s frauds and even greater extremes of wealth/income inequality it has created, tell me again why the stock market will still exist in 2024? When I read a financial pundit predicting a bull market in stocks through 2024, blah-blah-blah, I wonder: what makes you think the stock market will even… Read More

Comex Data Shows The Potential For A Run On Gold And Silver

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The last few delivery periods for gold and silver on the Comex have experienced a record number of longs standing for delivery. For gold, April’s record was topped by June’s record. Sandwiched in between these to “front month” contracts was a record amount of gold “delivered” in May (May is a non-front month contract). July… Read More

Market Strategies, What's Working and What's Not

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Strategy Session–Backspreads – outlier strats–In/Out Spreads–Duration Positions–Buying Irons–Calendar Spreads–Long/Short The Disconnect, asset pricing and main street–Blame the FED?–Blame the Qaunts! Next major move will be about MAGNITUDE!–high correlations SPX Expected Move–last week– 101 (expected move)–actual move– 121.05–next week– 80.50 The post Market Strategies, What's Working and What's Not appeared first on Theo Trade. Source: First… Read More

Cloud Stocks Stay Extremely Hot – Bubble Inflates

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3rd Rally In A Row: Cloud Stocks Explode On Wednesday, the S&P 500 rallied 0.5% as it looked to head into the holiday weekend on a winning streak. If the market rallies on Thursday, it will only be the 2nd 4 day winning streak in 5 months. Russell 2000 was actually down 0.97% as investors shunned energy… Read More

COVID-19 Resurgence Reverses Economic Recovery

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Economy Is Slowing This economy is slowing because of the increase in COVID-19 cases. And the stock market is ignoring this unless you think the 7% correction priced this in. A problem with that logic is over half of that correction has been rescinded even though we have no evidence the slowdown is over.  We… Read More

Still More Highs for the Holiday Week

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Stocks – at least the SP500 – held support of Don’s Gravity and the lower Profile Extreme to rally back toward 3100.  Along that short-term bullish journey, some key stocks including Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Netflix (NFLX) made new all-time highs while Apple (AAPL) fell a few dollars shy.  Which ‘strong stocks getting stronger’… Read More

Window Dressing Causes Winners To Spike Further

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Amazing Q2 S&P 500 increased 19.94% in Q2 which was the best Q2 since 1938. The market was 6 basis points away from having the first down 20% quarter followed by an up 20% quarter since 1932. We are in rarified territory even though this mark was barely missed. This was the S&P 500’s biggest… Read More

Real Time Economic Data Stops Improving

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Redbook Sales Growth Improves Again My theory is growth is slowing in the areas most impacted by COVID-19. This includes many states in the south and the west. With the northeast and the Midwest improving, it’s interesting to see what that does to national data. Redbook same store sales growth in the week of June… Read More

An Interesting Juncture in History

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Just as the rewards of central-bank bubbles have not been evenly distributed, the pain created by the collapse of the bubbles won’t be evenly distributed, either. We’ve reached an interesting juncture in history, and I don’t mean the pandemic. I’m referring to the normalization of extremes in the economy, in social decay and in political dysfunction and polarization.… Read More

Big Moves Same Range

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S&P tags the upper edge of the expected move. Despite the large intraday movement the overall market has been in the same range for the last 3 weeks. Here are the strategies Don is using right now in case the markets explode to the upside… The post Big Moves Same Range appeared first on Theo… Read More

Very Usual AAII Sentiment Reading

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Big Small Cap Rally The stock market had a solid Monday rally after selling off on Friday. Huge winners were the small caps. Specifically, the S&P 500 rose 1.47%, the Nasdaq rose 1.2%, and the Russell 2000 rose 3.08%. Tech stocks underperformed which is extremely rare for this market since the March bottom. CLOU cloud… Read More

Economy Expected To Have Added 3.5 Million Jobs In June

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Economic Expectations Thursday is a big day for labor data. Let’s look at a few estimates for this. We are getting the BLS monthly labor report and weekly jobless claims. It will be curious as to how the recent spike in COVID-19 cases impacts jobless claims. We might need to wait a couple more weeks… Read More

The New Normal: Extremes of Neofeudalism, Incompetence, Authoritarianism and Relocalization

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The pendulum swung to an extreme of globalization, financialization, centralization and monopoly, all of which created extreme systemic fragility. Here’s what to expect in the rapidly evolving New Normal: extremes become even more extreme as the status quo attempts to force compliance with its last-ditch schemes to preserve what was always unsustainable while painting a happy… Read More

Warren Buffett’s Portfolio On The Cheap

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Strong Last Hour Rally Thursday was a throwback to the last bull market in which the stock market always seemed to rally at the end of the day. There is a famous Twitter account that is named after the 3:30 PM rallies. In the past few months, we’ve been noticing spikes in the AM futures… Read More

Bulls Grab Control into the Close – What Now?

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After a sell-swing to support, buyers seized control into the close on the all-day strength of leading financial stocks such as Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Citigroup, and others.  In tonight’s video, Corey highlights the financial sector, the profile support plan (playing out now), and a quick update for Oil, Gold, and Bonds in this environment.… Read More