Markets Unsettled, Dollar Rides High

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Overview: The combination of OPEC+ decision not to boost output next month and Fed Chair Powell’s seemingly lack of concern about the level of long-term rates pushed on a door that was already open.  Oil is higher, yields are higher, most equity markets are lower, and the dollar has surged.  The S&P 500 is practically… Read More

Money and statistical delusions

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I can prove anything with statistics, except the truth — Lord Canning, c. 1819 Does Canning’s aphorism still hold true, given that data collection and statistical analysis have progressed beyond all recognition in the last two hundred years? This article tests that proposition. It is still true, because of the interests for which statistics are… Read More

OPEC+ and Powell are Awaited

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Overview:  Equities are under pressure following yesterday’s sharp losses in the US.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index suffered its biggest decline of the week today as Japanese, Chinese, and Hong Kong benchmarks slid by more than 2%.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index in Europe is buckling under the pressure and is posting its first… Read More

Can Goldman Sachs Create More Bitcoin?

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This week, Goldman Sachs announced they are looking to get back into crypto and begin dealing Bitcoin futures. Our Daniela Cambone speaks with Stansberry’s Eric Wade, editor of Crypto Capital, about the impact of such a move. They boil down the “what ifs” and address whether the bank will be able to work around the… Read More

Warning: the Bond Market is Starting to Blow Up Again

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The markets are at a crossroads. We’ve had one major rally this week (Monday). We’ve had one major drop this week (Tuesday). The issue is which one was the real deal. Monday could easily have been the result of short-covering and “start of the month” buying by financial institutions. Similarly, Tuesday could have been the… Read More

Trilateralism: The Past is Prologue

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Intercapitalist rivalries ebb and flow and shaped modern history more than many may realize. Recall that Nixon unilaterally severed the dollar’s last ties to gold, not because of the Soviet Union.  America’s capitalist allies in Europe demanded gold for their dollars, accumulating from aid, foreign direct investment, and trade.  A couple years after the collapse… Read More

The US Dollar Finds Footing

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Overview:  Equities have more stable footing today, despite yesterday’s losses in the US, as the relative stability in the bond markets bolster risk-appetites. Led by a 2.7% rally in Hong Kong, which matches its largest advance of the year, Asia Pacific markets all advanced.   Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up for the third consecutive… Read More

Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary: The Real Deal Behind His Bitcoin 180 and Why a $100K Price Is Not Crazy

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Shark Tank star Kevin O’Leary, aka Mr. Wonderful, has begun investing in Bitcoin. The move is a complete 180-degree turn from the high-profile investor who previously called the cryptocurrency “garbage,” and a “nothing burger.” In an exclusive with our Daniela Cambone, he reveals the tipping point that caused him to change his stance. O’Leary says… Read More

The Dollar Finds Better Footing

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Overview: A warning from China’s top banking regulator about the frothiness of foreign markets appeared to blunt the knock-on effect of yesterday’s largest rise in the S&P 500 since last June (~2.4%) and weighed on global equities.  The large markets in the Asia Pacific region but India and South Korea fell.  Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600… Read More

March Monthly

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The investment climate is changing.  The reflation trade has gained traction.  Bond yields rose sharply, and curves steepened.  The dollar value of the negative-yielding bonds in the world fell from a peak last December of around $18.4 trillion to $12.6 trillion, the least since last July.     Commodity prices continue to move higher.  The CRB… Read More

Animal Spirits Roar Like a Lion to Start the New Month

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Overview:  Equities and bonds jump back.  Most Asia Pacific markets advanced 1.5-2.5% after the regional MSCI benchmark dropped 3.65% before the weekend and 5.3% last week.  The recovery in European stocks was even more impressive.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 was up around 1.55% near midday, recouping the pre-weekend loss in full and making a gallant… Read More

Was Last Week an Inflection Point for the Dollar?

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For several years now, many have asked themselves where the bond vigilantes, those bond bears that push back against “QE forever” and never-ending government deficits. They appeared with a vengeance last week.  Many investors took comments from Federal Reserve officials, especially the leadership, as evidence of complacency over inflation. The market also concluded that the… Read More