Monday Blues

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toothpaste

Overview: Risk appetites remain in check as the spread of the coronavirus is leading to more and longer shutdowns.  Asia Pacific equities fell with Australia, the notable exception.  Its benchmark rallied a record 7%, encouraged by additional stimulus measures.  Led by financials, following new that the ECB is requesting banks hold off dividend payments until… Read More

Technicals Turn Against the Dollar

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order

The dollar rallied strongly from March 9 through March 20 or the start of last week on March 23.  It has subsequently sold off and done so in dramatic fashion.  It is not clear the trigger of the stunning reversal.  Some observers attribute it to the Fed’s currency swap lines, which were offered daily (seven-day… Read More

Silver Setting Up A Perfect Storm? Here’s What Needs To Happen

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Automatically receive the internet’s most informative articles bi-weekly via our free bi-weekly Market Intelligence Report newsletter (sample here). Register in the top right hand corner of this page. …Today’s infographic is Part Two of the Silver Series (see Part One here), and it comes to us from Endeavour Silver, outlining some of the key supply and… Read More

Recessions vs. Depressions: How Do They Differ?

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Automatically receive the internet’s most informative articles bi-weekly via our free bi-weekly Market Intelligence Report newsletter (sample here). Register in the top right hand corner of this page. Normal business and economic cycles are characterized by growth in the economy (termed expansions), followed by periodic declines (called recessions) and, if a recession lasts 2 or… Read More

The Lay of the Land

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scientists

The markets are an incredible aggregator of information.  The corona crisis has denied grist to the mill.  With so many unknowns, it is as if investors latched on to the US fiscal debate.  A camel, it is said, is a horse made in committee, and so too with the laborious legislative process of the American… Read More

Vital Lessons Still Not Learned: Be Careful About GFC2

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It’s one of those crisis-level-of-illiquidity things that if you heard about it in normal times it would make you shake your head in disbelief. During a full-blown meltdown maybe it’s not standard stuff, but given the chaotic conditions it doesn’t seem so preposterous, either. Negative convexity is an otherwise benign phenomenon in fixed income that… Read More

Sex & Coronavirus: How To Reduce the Risk Of Transmission

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Automatically receive the internet’s most informative articles bi-weekly via our free bi-weekly Market Intelligence Report newsletter (sample here). Register in the top right hand corner of this page. …[You] could unwillingly exacerbate the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) if you don’t take the necessary precautions [in your sexual activities]…Here are a few general recommendations to… Read More

America the Broken – Can It Be Restored?

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Sponsored Link min

This is the first issue of The Rise of America, a series about the future of the United States as the global superpower. You’ll read about the forces that will propel it to unprecedented dominance—and how you can best position yourself to profit from it. Dear Reader, You’ve heard someone say some variation of this… Read More

Nervousness Ahead of the Weekend

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edge

Overview:  Officials appear to have persuaded investors that they have put into place measures that will cushion the economic blow and ensure that the financial system continues to function.  After seemingly goading officials into action, investors are choosing not to resist. Moreover, there is a recognition that many programs are scalable.  Risk assets dipped initially… Read More

It Doesn’t Get Much Better Than This?

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Photo Credit: Valerie || Photo taken from the coast of Key West at sunset. Relaxing and peaceful, so they say… Image Credit: Aleph Blog What an amazing three days. I’ve said to some of my clients that moves of this magnitude are highly unusual. How unusual? The returns of the last three days would rank… Read More

No Further Comment Necessary At This Point

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I would write something snarky about bank reserves, but why bother at this point? It’s already been said. If Jay Powell doesn’t mention collateral, no one else does even though it’s the whole ballgame right now. Note: FRBNY’s updated figures shown below are for last week. Source: alhambrapartners.com

A Warning From the Great Depression

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A Warning From the Great Depression

3.28 million. That is the total number of unemployment claims Americans filed last week — nearly five times the prior record of 695,000, from October 1982. “We’ve known this number was coming for a week and a half,” laments Tom Gimbel, who captains a Chicago employment agency, adding: It doesn’t surprise me at all. When… Read More

Rumor Bought, Fact Sold

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(Weekly initial jobless claims since 1987) Overview: Speculation that the US Senate would pass the large stimulus bill worth around 10% of US GDP is thought to have fueled a bounce in equities in recent days. The bill was approved and will now go to the House, where a vote is expected tomorrow. If the rumor… Read More

Get Ready for World Money

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Get Ready for World Money

Since Federal Reserve resources were barely able to prevent complete collapse in 2008, it should be expected that an even larger collapse will overwhelm the Fed’s balance sheet. That’s exactly the situation we’re facing right now. The specter of a global debt crisis suggests the urgency for new liquidity sources, bigger than those that central… Read More

Not Good: Eurodollar Futures Curve Sells Off, At The FRONT

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If the Fed has promised to print an unlimited supply of money, then why are inflation expectations at crisis lows and falling? At the same time, there are still-growing signs of illiquidity and an interbank crackup. Bazooka after bazooka, yet they don’t seem to be having much effect. That’s true domestically but more so offshore.… Read More

Relief, but…

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lion

Overview: Global equities are marching higher. While the Dow Jones Industrials posted its biggest advance since 1933, the US is lagging behind other leading benchmarks. The MSCI Asia Pacific advanced, led by Japan’s Nikkei’s 8% gain. It was third consecutive gain, during which time the Nikkei has rallied 17%. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up… Read More

An Optimistic Assessment of COVID-19

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PIcture credit: Aleph Blog, and the same for all the graphs and charts in this post. All liability for mistakes here is mine. This post is different than any other I have done at Aleph Blog. I will try to write this in a nice way even though it is a strong and out-of-consensus opinion… Read More