China’s Plan to Tank Their Own Stock Market

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This post China’s Plan to Tank Their Own Stock Market appeared first on Daily Reckoning. When I say the fix is in for FXI that’s not meant to be mysterious. FXI is the ticker symbol for a U.S. exchange-traded fund (ETF) composed of the largest Chinese stocks. The phrase “the fix is in” simply refers… Read More

Keep Your Eye on China

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This post Keep Your Eye on China appeared first on Daily Reckoning. The trade war is beginning to take its toll on China as the Chinese economy is losing momentum. Beijing has pledged to increase small-business lending and increase infrastructure investment to help offset the impact. Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura Intl. in… Read More

Pure Corruption

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In December 1999, Princeton Professor Ben S. Bernanke wrote a relatively obscure paper largely denouncing the Bank of Japan’s shyness. Japan’s economy had by then been mired in its first Lost Decade, one which at that moment not everyone was sure should have been lost. It was fashionable at the time to pile on the… Read More

A Bullish Bond Argument That Hides in Plain Sight

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It’s been awhile since I advised anyone to load up on long Treasuries. The bearish bond narrative has been too strong for that, thanks largely to fiscal policy but also to near-4% unemployment rates, quantitative tightening and—maybe most threatening of all—tit-for-tat tariffs. In fact, I challenge anyone to think of a time during the past… Read More

Cool Video: CNBC Discussion on Turkey

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I had the opportunity to join Professor Hanke to discuss the crisis in Turkey.  The professor sketched out his view expressed in a recent op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal, arguing that Turkey is best served by adopting a currency board, anchoring the lira to hard currency, like the euro or dollar, or gold. … Read More

Great Graphic JPY Struggles at Trendline

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This Great Graphic is a weekly bar chart of the dollar-yen exchange rate.  It shows a three-year downtrend line (white line).  The US dollar had popped above it last month, but this proved premature and has not closed about it for a month.  The trendline is found near JPY111.55 now. Connecting the 2016 dollar lows and… Read More

Ugly China’s American Mirror

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Yesterday, we spotlighted Brazil’s economy as perhaps a leading indicator for where things stand. Today, it’s China’s turn. Neither are very encouraging. Both offer instead only growing concern. The reason isn’t just the possibility of the world economy rolling over in 2018, rather it’s from what level any deceleration might have begun. Despite the characterization… Read More

Meet Dark Money’s Secret $68 Million Donor

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Meet Dark Money’s Secret $68 Million Donor By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: August 14, 2018 ~ In 2010 we broke the news that a secretive nonprofit called Donors Capital Fund (with the fingerprints of billionaire Charles Koch all over it) had forked over $17,778,600 to fund a widely distributed race-baiting film in the weeks… Read More

How Gold & Will Silver Trade During The Next Market Crash

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While many investors believe the gold and silver price will crash during the next market meltdown, I see a much different outcome.  Yes, it is true that the metals may sell off initially in the beginning, but I believe gold and silver will disconnect from the broader markets and move up much higher. The reason…… Read More

Brief Respite but Little Relief

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Corrective pressures grip the capital markets today, helped by the easing of the selling pressure on Turkey,  but its more a respite than a relief as no new policy initiatives are behind the lira’s upticks.   The implication of this is that it is unlikely to last.  In fact, the dollar’s low in early Europe a… Read More

8 Myths About the Wilshire 5000 Index & Workplace AI

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Most investors are probably more familiar with the S&P 500 Index which is the go-to index for large-cap stocks…[with the] largest publicly-traded U.S. stocks by market capitalization, as well as other criteria. Today’s infographic comes to us from Raconteur and it helps paint a clearer picture about the nature of AI, while attempting to debunk… Read More

Overshadowing The Multi-year CPI High

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Overshadowed by the “dollar” last week was the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The BLS reported the US CPI had increased in July 2018 by the highest rate since December 2011. Running at 2.95% year-over-year, consumer prices accelerated a little from June’s pace. Not only that, the CPI’s core rate of inflation sped up to 2.35%.… Read More

Unwelcome August

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There is just something about August. It is irresistible, apparently, in all the wrong ways. For starters, there are big ones and small ones but somehow they all line up against liquidity and plentiful eurodollar money. In the former class there was, of course, August 9, 2007, August 9, 2011, and August 10, 2015. Even… Read More

Dollar ↓ Profits ↑

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This post Dollar ↓ Profits ↑ appeared first on Daily Reckoning. Most stock investors couldn’t care less about the dollar. When it comes to the dollar, most people here in the U.S and abroad have just one concern: what can a dollar buy me? And when you start talking about the dollar as an asset… Read More

Great Graphic: Possible Head and Shoulders Top in Euro

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The euro appears to have carved out head and shoulder top.  As this Great Graphic depicts, the euro was sold through the neckline at the end of last week and is 1% below it today.  It is not unusual for the neckline to be retested.  It is found near $1.15.  It also dovetails with our near-term… Read More

Welcome To Our New Design

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The global economy may not be getting any better, but at Alhambra we strive to anyway. Unlike worldwide eurodollar liquidity, we aim to actually improve over time. In our ongoing effort to make things easier and cleaner for our readers and future clients, our website has been restructured and reformatted. Everything else will remain the… Read More

The Smoke Thickens In China

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A major part of any yield curve is inflation expectations. Nominal growth particularly toward the longer end of curves sets the agenda for trading. But further out there are several confluences that may cause distortions. For Economists, these are conundrums. There are times, however, when curve dynamics remain pretty simple. These are not usually the… Read More

Why Tariffs will Not Reduce the US Trade Deficit

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When trying to work through the impact of US tariffs on its trade balance, one ought to keep in mind Orson Welles caution that if you want a happy ending, that of course, depends on where you end your story.   If one stops with simply the US tax on imports, it should reduce the quantity… Read More

Turkey Drives Risk-Off, but Pressure Abating

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The failure of Turkey to grab the bull by the horns, so to speak, and come to grips with the situation saw the dollar soar above TRY7.23(from TRY6.43 at the end of last week) and to ZAR15.55 (from ZAR14.09).  The Mexican peso, the strongest currency this year, and which has been partially protected by prospects… Read More