Last night’s Singaporean show was the prelude to the rest of the week’s real action – central banks – and nothing drives The Fed more than inflation anxiety as exhibited by Core CPI this morning… and it printed hot.
For the 32nd consecutive month, the consensus estimate on the street was +0.2% MoM – and expectations were met – pushing the headline CPI to +2.8% YoY (as expected) – the highest since December 2011…
Core CPI also rose to +2.1% YoY (as expected) – the highest since Jan 2017.
The indexes for new vehicles, education and communication, and tobacco increased in May, while the indexes for household furnishing and operations, and used cars and trucks fell. The indexes for apparel, recreation, and personal care were unchanged.
The medical care index increased 0.2 percent in May, with the index for prescription drugs increasing 1.4 percent, the index for hospital services increasing 0.5 percent, and the index for physicians’ services increasing 0.1 percent. The new vehicles index increased 0.3 percent in May, while the index for motor vehicle insurance increased 0.4 percent after falling 0.2 percent in April. The indexes for tobacco and for education and communication also increased.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.2 percent over the past 12 months, after increasing 2.1 percent in the 12 months ending March and April, and the medical care index rose 2.4 percent. Indexes that declined over the past 12 months include those for new vehicles, airline fares, used cars and trucks, and communication.
And while rent inflation remained the same, shelter index rose 3.5 percent over the last 12 months…
And while prices are soaring, real wage growth is slumping…
Real average hourly earnings were unchanged YoY – the weakest since Feb 2017.
Over to you Jay!