Following a slowdown in headline consumer price growth, headline producer price inflation was expected to slow in June (already at the lowest since Jan 2017) but it printed hotter than expected at +1.7% YoY (vs +1.6% YoY exp).
Under the hood, PPI services jumped as PPI goods dumped:
The index for final demand services rose 0.4 percent in June, the largest increase since climbing 0.8 percent in October 2018
Prices for final demand goods moved down 0.4 percent in June, the largest decrease since falling 0.6 percent in January.
The China trade war is now creeping into PPI:
“Most of the June advance is attributable to margins for final demand trade services, which moved up 1.3%.”
The indexes for health, beauty, and optical goods retailing; apparel, footwear, and accessories retailing; machinery, equipment, parts, and supplies wholesaling; loan services (partial); and truck transportation of freight also moved higher.
In contrast, prices for traveler accommodation services fell 4.0 percent. The indexes for jewelry retailing and airline passenger services also declined.
But, the big one was a 19.9% surge in corn prices.
However, more worrying for the goldilocks-crowd baying for a Fed rate-cut, is Core PPI printed much hotter than expected (+2.3% YoY vs +2.1% YoY exp) confirming the rebound in consumer price inflation…
Transitory seems to be the only word!!
So will The Fed actually be data-dependent (remember, Powell said the jobs report didn’t change his mind)? or is this rebound in inflation also transitory?