Submitted by Taps Coogan on the 5th of March 2020 to The Sounding Line.
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Evercore ISI Chairman Ed Hyman, one of the fathers of modern market research and perennially ranked as one of the top institutional economic advisors in the world, recently spoke with Bloomberg Markets about what his economic surveys are telling him about the US and Chinese economies. Mr. Hyman describes the economic situation in China as ‘apocalyptic’ and although he expects recovery, he sees US GDP growth dipping to zero in the second and third quarters of this year.
Some excerpts from Ed Hyman:
“(US survey data) was really good. The economy has been really good across 96 cities that I have identified that are doing well. But, I am tracking China now and I think the US economy is really gonna get weak. It’s going to have zero growth in the second and third quarter.”
“(The Fed rate cut) doesn’t really help the virus much, whether you or I go to a Broadway play or a baseball game. So I think (US GDP) is going to be really weak…”
“(For China) we have GDP in the first quarter down something like 10% or 20%. You saw their PMI came out. It’s just a complete free fall… I think China is very weak but things are opening up there now. By the second quarter it will be a little bit better. I think the PMI will probably go up a little bit from this free fall it hit in February…”
“In China, it took about three weeks from when they started counting the virus to when the economy really started to unload. So, I think towards the end of March, early April (the US economy slows) and then I am counting on something like four to six months before we get to a point where the Coronavirus is starting to recede, like it is in China now…”
If Mr. Hyman’s timing is correct, the economic slowdown in the US will line up with the peak of the political campaigning season in the US, a coincidence that markets are unlikely to enjoy.
There is more to the interview, so enjoy it above.
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