Last Friday, as futures were tumbling and below the -10% correction level, we said that “Looks like it’s time to buy…” after we published Dennis Gartman’s latest commentary in which he said that “We fear that a fully-fledged bear market is now upon us as one level of supposed support after another has been tested and has been found wanting.”
Fast forward to today when we have even more bad news for the bears: whereas Gartman has remained bearish on stocks ever since he bottom ticked the correction (to date), he refrained from publicizing any trades (in his 401K account). That changed today when in his latest note he said that “having been only philosophically bearish of shares but having refrained from taking a bearish position, the time came yesterday to act and we sold the US, the Japanese and the European stock markets short upon receipt of this commentary.”
And then this pearl:
“We have been considering selling equities in global terms and as noted here yesterday… Wednesday, February 14th… we sold US, Japanese and European shares, using our International Index as our “gauge” with the Index at 11,896. We sold one unit in total, risking only 3% from our initiation point on the trade… or to 12,253… and thus far we are obviously wrong.”
Obviously… and it is also obvious that the latest algo-driven market burst higher will continue unchallenged until such time as Gartman announces he was once again stopped out.
Full excerpt below:
Once again, we reiterate what we’d said earlier this week and late last, and that is that we remain of the opinion that the highs made in global terms in late January mark an important interim peak for shares and may, in the end, mark the bull market’s peak and the very beginnings of a bear market; however, clearly we are wrong, or at least we are for the moment. Time only, of course, shall tell, but we are clearly of the opinion that as the monetary authorities withdraw their support from the capital market and that is as they move from Quantitative Easing to quiet, relentless Quantitative Tightening, and as the global economy continues to strengthen, the capital needed to fund governments AND to fund the demand for plant/equipment and labor shall have to come out of equity investment.
But again, for the moment we are obviously wrong. There is nothing wrong with being wrong, for we can be wrong often, but there is much wrong with adding to wrong positions and there is nearly as much wrong with remaining wrong when the market’s direction is clear even if illogical.
The “Fundamentalists” among us are collectively and resolutely shouting from the rooftops that “The economy is strong and that earnings are growing, and that that of course, supports higher stock prices.” We’ll not argue with their first part of their premise. Indeed, embrace their argument saying that the global economy is indeed quite strong and shall remain so for months into the future. However, stock markets look forward. They discount the future and they are likely to weaken rather than to strengthen as THE singularly most important fundamental of the past nine years… monetary expansion… wanes and monetary contraction obtains.
Hence, having been only philosophically bearish of shares but having refrained from taking a bearish position, the time came yesterday to act and we sold the US, the Japanese and the European stock markets short upon receipt of this commentary. As we said, we shall use our own International Index as our gauge of the trade as our bearish posture is broadly catholic in nature, rather than profoundly and parochially US dependent.
Finally now that we have adopted this initial short position we shall also have a point at which we admit that we are wrong and that shall be 3% above our entry point. Hence we are “short” of global stocks with our Index at 11,896 and we’ll run for cover and admit our error should our Index “trade” above 12,253. One must always… ALWAYS… be prepared to admit that one is wrong:
In other words, the ramp has at most another 2-3% to go…