Last week I got long the US 5-30 year yield spread (Air Says Get Long Steepeners). I thought the seasonality, combined with a bear move in bonds, would cause some steepening in that part of the curve. Well, I got the bear move in bonds, but not only was there no steepening, the 5-30 spread […]

QT1 Will Lead to QE4

This post QT1 Will Lead to QE4 appeared first on Daily Reckoning. There are only three members of the Board of Governors who matter: Janet Yellen, Stan Fischer and Lael Brainard. There is only one Regional Reserve Bank President who matters: Bill Dudley of New York. Yellen, Fischer, Brainard and Dudley are the “Big Four.” […]

“Experts” Completely Misread Fed Announcement

This post “Experts” Completely Misread Fed Announcement appeared first on Daily Reckoning. After nine years of unconventional quantitative easing (QE) policy the Federal Reserve announced yesterday that it is now setting out on a new path for quantitative tightening (QT), starting next month. QE was a policy of money printing. The Fed did this by […]

The Impossible Math of the Federal Reserve

Yesterday the Federal Reserve officially signaled the beginning of its balance sheet run-off. At this point, that’s old news. But, today the Fed released the Z.1 Flow of Funds, which adds to the intrigue of the balance sheet run-off. Why? Instead of getting wrapped up in fancy terms like quantitative easing and large-scale asset purchases, […]

Are You Ready for Dow 1,000,000?

This post Are You Ready for Dow 1,000,000? appeared first on Daily Reckoning. If Warren Buffett announced he was about to jump off a cliff, countless investors would gleefully race him to the edge and fling themselves into the abyss. The Cult of Buffett has amassed an unprecedented following over the years. His Midwestern charm […]

Pitch the Perfect Investment

I have not seen the videos in the link below.  Let me know if you learn anything practical. Pitch the perfect investment (videos) Source: CS Investing

Factor Strategy Focus – Benjamin Graham

By Jack Forehand — When we started following guru-based models, the term factor investing didn’t exist. We just wanted to find a way to outperform the market, and we realized that only a very small group of investors had successfully done that – and we certainly weren’t in that group. So we decided to follow […]

Cohen Preparing for a Comeback

Billionaire Steve Cohen, the former head of the firm SAC Capital Advisors—which pleaded guilty to securities fraud in 2013 and agreed to pay a record $1.8 billion fine—is considering starting a new hedge fund, according to a recent Bloomberg article. While Cohen wasn’t charged with wrongdoing in the case, he was barred from managing outside […]

Will The Fed Really “Normalize” Its Balance Sheet? – Dave Kranzler

September 21, 2017 To begin with, how exactly does one define “normalize” in reference to the Fed’s balance sheet? The Fed predictably held off raising rates again today. However, it said that beginning in October it would no longer re-invest proceeds from its Treasury and mortgage holdings and let the balance sheet “run off.” Here’s […]

Gold Investment “Compelling” As Fed May “Kill The Business Cycle”

Gold Investment “Compelling” As Fed Likely To Create Next Recession – Is the Fed about to kill the business cycle? – 16 out of 19 rate-hike cycles in past 100 years ended in recession – Total global debt at all time high – see chart – Global debt is 327% of world GDP – ticking timebomb… […]

17 Lessons on Creativity and Investing from the Co-Founder of Pixar

This post was originally published on I recently read Creativity Inc, a book by Ed Catmull, who is co-founder of Pixar. Ed is a deep thinker, who after a two decade goal produced the first computer-animated feature film ‘Toy Story’. Upon achieving this goal, and after recognising the missteps of other successful companies run by smart people, […]

Eldorado defers decision to halt operations in Greece as talks with Gov’t begin

Canada’s Eldorado Gold’s (TSX:ELD)(NYSE:EGO), Greece’s biggest foreign investor, is temporarily postponing its decision to halt operations and investment in the country as it begins talks with the government. “We are very pleased with the constructive dialogue that is underway with the Ministry of Energy and Environment,” chief executive George Burns said in the statement. “[However] we preserve […]

The forthcoming global crisis

The global economy is now in an expansionary phase, with bank credit being increasingly available for non-financial borrowers. This is always the prelude to the crisis phase of the credit cycle. Most national economies are directly boosted by China, the important exception being America. This is confirmed by dollar weakness, which is expected to continue. […]

NUM stages sit-in at Petra Diamonds’ Finsch mine

SOUTH Africa’s National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) said 67 of its members were staging an underground sit-in at Petra Diamonds’ Finsch mine after the union embarked on a strike over wages. “The NUM members at Finsch Mine in [the] Northern Cape have vowed to continue with their legal strike until Petra Diamonds addresses their demands,” […]

4-Warnings For The Bull Market

When I was growing up my father, probably much like yours, had pearls of wisdom that he would drop along the way. It wasn’t until much later in life that I learned that such knowledge did not come from books, but through experience. One of my favorite pieces of “wisdom” was: “Exactly how many warnings […]

Daily Solutions – 21 September 2017

JOHANNESBURG – The all share closed weaker on Wednesday as a firmer rand and a slump in Sasol’s share price dragged the market lower. In its first day of trade, however, Steinhoff Africa Retail (Star) performed well, in high-volume trade. Banking shares gained ahead of the Reserve Bank’s interest-rate decision on Thursday. Better than-expected consumer […]

Market Digests Fed, Greenback Consolidates, Antipodeans Tumble

The market has mostly interpreted the Fed’s action in line with our thinking. Despite the lowering of the long-run Fed funds rate, the shifting one of the three hikes from 2019 into 2020, and recognizing that the weaker price impulses are somewhat mysterious, the Fed clearly signaled its bias toward hiking rates one more time this […]