Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, FOMC Announcement

by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2021 09:00:00 PM Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • During the day, The AIA’s Architecture Billings Index for August (a leading indicator for commercial real estate). • At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for August from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is […]

Read more
Comments On August Housing Starts

Comments on August Housing Starts

by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2021 11:24:00 AM In the Newsletter I have additional comments on August housing starts Currently there are also 702 thousand multi-family units under construction. This is the highest level since 1974! For multi-family, construction delays are a factor. The completion of these units should help with rent pressure. Adblock test (Why?) Read MoreCalculated Risk

Read more
Housing Starts Increased To 1 615 Million Annual Rate In August

Housing Starts increased to 1.615 Million Annual Rate in August

by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2021 08:40:00 AM From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately‐owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,615,000. This is 3.9 percent above the revised July estimate of 1,554,000 and is 17.4 percent above the August 2020 rate of 1,376,000. Single‐family housing starts in August were at a rate of 1,076,000; this […]

Read more

Tuesday: Housing Starts

by Calculated Risk on 9/20/2021 07:25:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: MBS RECAP: Surprise Snowball Rally as Stocks Swoon Over Global Risks It remains to be seen how long the stock swoon continues as there is some disagreement about whether the Evergrande drama deserves as much credit as it received today. Either way, bonds simply endured an in-range correction, and they remain […]

Read more
Nahb Builder Confidence Increased To 76 In September

NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to 76 in September

by Calculated Risk on 9/20/2021 10:04:00 AM The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 76, up from 75 in August. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Steadies as Material and Labor Challenges Persist Builder confidence inched up in September on lower lumber prices […]

Read more

Monday: NAHB Homebuilder Survey

by Calculated Risk on 9/19/2021 07:20:00 PM Weekend: • Schedule for Week of September 19, 2021 • FOMC Preview: Tapering “Advance Notice” Likely Monday: • 10:00 AM ET, The September NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of  74, down from 75 in August. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data […]

Read more

Newsletter Articles this Week

by Calculated Risk on 9/18/2021 02:00:00 PM At the Calculated Risk Newsletter this week: Analysis: • The Rapid Increase in Rents; What is happening? Why? And what will happen. • House Price to Median Income; New Data for 2020 Income • Household Formation Drives Housing Demand; Some preliminary data and analysis Local Real Estate data: • California August Housing: Sales down 11% YoY, “Home sales […]

Read more
Schedule For Week Of September 19 2021

Schedule for Week of September 19, 2021

by Calculated Risk on 9/18/2021 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are August Housing Starts, and New and Existing Home sales. The FOMC meets this week, and no change to policy is expected. —– Monday, September 20th —– 10:00 AM: The September NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of  74, down from 75 in August. Any number above 50 indicates that […]

Read more
Urban Institute Median 95 Ltv For New Mortgage Originations Only 5 Downpayment

Urban Institute: Median 95% LTV for New Mortgage Originations (Only 5% Downpayment)

by Calculated Risk on 9/17/2021 04:54:00 PM NYU Stern professor Arpit Gupta tweeted today: A common intuition is that borrowers put 20% down on a home. The median down payment is actually closer to 5%, and has been for 12 years. He included a chart from the Urban Institute showing the median LTV for new mortgage loan originations is 95% – and has been at […]

Read more
September 16th Covid 19 Over 180 Million Fully Vaccinated

September 16th COVID-19: Over 180 Million Fully Vaccinated

by Calculated Risk on 9/16/2021 04:59:00 PM The CDC is the source for all data. The 7-day average deaths is the highest since March 1st. According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.  Total doses administered: 383,038,403, as of a week ago 377,622,065. Average doses last week: 0.90 million per day. COVID Metrics  TodayWeekAgoGoal Percent fully Vaccinated54.2%53.4%≥70.0%1 Fully Vaccinated (millions)180.1177.4≥2321 New Cases per Day3🚩146,182137,783≤5,0002 Hospitalized389,13293,255≤3,0002 Deaths per […]

Read more

Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg

by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2021 09:00:00 PM Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  There were 310 thousand initial claims last week. • Also at 8:30 AM, Retail sales for August will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.7% decrease in retail sales. • Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for September. The […]

Read more
September 15th Covid 19 2 000 Deaths Reported Today Most Since February

September 15th COVID-19: 2,000 Deaths Reported Today, Most since February

by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2021 05:22:00 PM The CDC is the source for all data. The 7-day average deaths is the highest since March 2nd. According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.  Total doses administered: 382,294,795, as of a week ago 376,955,132. Average doses last week: 0.76 million per day. COVID Metrics  TodayWeekAgoGoal Percent fully Vaccinated54.1%53.3%≥70.0%1 Fully Vaccinated (millions)179.7177.1≥2321 New Cases per Day3🚩145,675141,275≤5,0002 Hospitalized390,59393,243≤3,0002 Deaths per […]

Read more
Mba Mortgage Applications Increase In Latest Weekly Survey

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey

by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2021 07:00:00 AM From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 0.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 10, 2021. This week’s results include an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday. … The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent […]

Read more

House Price to Median Income

by Calculated Risk on 9/14/2021 12:30:00 PM House Price to Median Income NOTE: This is the new Newsletter that focuses solely on Real Estate. It is completely Free at this time.  Please subscribe! The Census Bureau released median income data for 2020 today. Adblock test (Why?) Read MoreCalculated Risk

Read more
September 13th Covid 19 Data Reported On Monday Is Always Low And Will Be Revised Up As Data Is Received

September 13th COVID-19: Data reported on Monday is always low, and will be revised up as data is received

by Calculated Risk on 9/13/2021 09:47:00 PM The CDC is the source for all data. According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.  Total doses administered: 380,241,903, as of a week ago 374,488,924. COVID Metrics  TodayWeekAgoGoal Percent fully Vaccinated53.8%53.0%≥70.0%1 Fully Vaccinated (millions)178.7176.0≥2321 New Cases per Day3117,622152,402≤5,0002 Hospitalized387,84893,421≤3,0002 Deaths per Day31,0771,213≤502 1 Minimum to achieve “herd immunity” (estimated between 70% and 85%).2my goals to stop daily posts,37 day average […]

Read more

The Rapid Increase in Rents

by Calculated Risk on 9/12/2021 01:05:00 PM The Rapid Increase in Rents NOTE: This is the new Newsletter that focuses solely on Real Estate. It is completely Free at this time.  Please subscribe! This Newsletter article discusses: What is happening with rents? Why are rents increasing rapidly? What will happen? Adblock test (Why?) Read MoreCalculated Risk

Read more
Fdic Problem Banks Declined Residential Reo Declined In Q2

FDIC: Problem Banks Declined, Residential REO Declined in Q2

by Calculated Risk on 9/10/2021 04:51:00 PM The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q2 2021 this week: Net income totaled $70.4 billion, an increase of $51.9 billion (281 percent) from the same quarter a year ago, primarily due to a $73 billion (117.3 percent) decline in provision expense. … Total loan and lease balances increased $33.2 billion (0.3 percent) from the previous quarter. […]

Read more
Hotels Occupancy Rate Unchanged Compared To Same Week In 2019

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Unchanged Compared to Same Week in 2019

by Calculated Risk on 9/10/2021 10:52:00 AM Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic. The occupancy rate was unchanged compared to the same week in 2019 due to Labor Day demand and Hurricane Ida. From CoStar: Labor Day Demand, Hurricane Ida Evacuations Reverse Five-Week US Hotel Occupancy Slide Labor Day weekend leisure travel and Hurricane […]

Read more

CoreLogic: House Prices up 18.0% YoY in July, All-Time High YoY Increase

by Calculated Risk on 9/07/2021 08:00:00 AM Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for July. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for June. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: U.S. Home Price Index Annual Growth Reaches All-Time High in July, CoreLogic Reports CoreLogic® … released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and […]

Read more

The Employment Situation is Worse than the Unemployment Rate Indicates

by Calculated Risk on 9/04/2021 05:35:00 PM The headline unemployment rate of 5.2% significantly understates the current situation.  Here is a table that shows the current number of unemployed and the unemployment rate (as of August 2021).  Then I calculated the unemployment rate by including the number of people that have left the labor force since early 2020, and the expected growth in the labor […]

Read more