Saturday’s News Links

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[Reuters] OPEC+ emergency meeting likely to be postponed to April 8 or 9: OPEC sources [Reuters] Trump aims to ease U.S. oil industry’s cash crunch, no plan to trim output: sources [AP] Saudi Arabia sharply rebukes Russia over oil price collapse [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: US cases continue to rise faster than other countries [Bloomberg] Risk to Jobs Now ‘Unprecedented… Read More

Weekly Commentary: The King of Sovereign Subprime

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The past week witnessed 6.6 million new U.S. unemployment claims, pushing the two-week surge to a sickening almost 10 million. The U.S. economy is sliding into the steepest of downturns, with awful consequences for society, economic structure and financial stability. But this week’s CBB will focus more on the global economy. April 2 – Bloomberg… Read More

FOREVER CHANGING THE GAME

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No doubt we are living in extraordinary times. All you need to do is look at the chart of US Initial Jobless Claims over the past half-century to get a sense of the uniqueness of the current situation. So far, both the Federal Reserve and the US government have met the challenge with never-before-seen stimulus.… Read More

Friday’s News Links

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[Reuters] Asian markets look to follow Wall Street rally as oil surges [Reuters] Oil falls on scepticism over Trump’s Saudi-Russia output deal [Reuters] China’s services activity shrinks further in March, job cuts fastest on record: Caixin PMI [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: South Korea cases top 10,000, Singapore reports fifth death [Forbes] Why U.S. Housing Bubble 2.0 Is About To Burst… Read More

This Is What Economic Collapse Looks Like

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Approximately ten million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits over the past two weeks.  To put that in perspective, the all-time record for a single week before this coronavirus pandemic hit was just 695,000.  So needless to say, 6.6 million claims in a single week puts us in uncharted territory.  Just check out this… Read More

Thursday’s News Links

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[Reuters] Asian stocks slip as Trump warns of horrors to come [Reuters] Coronavirus live updates: Global cases top 930,000 as Singapore reports fourth death [AP] Apply here: How to spend $2.2 trillion — and rescue economy [Reuters] Exclusive: U.S. officials agree on new ways to control high tech exports to China – sources [Bloomberg] Yuan Weakens Past Key Support Level… Read More

AN ENVIRONMENT MADE FOR BUFFETT

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This morning the Wall Street Journal reported that billionaire investor Warren Buffett is “circling the hardest-hit companies in the travel, lodging and entertainment sectors.” Buffett is sitting on a cash pile of $128 billion. Not that long ago, some investors were chastising Buffett for his conservative ways. Funny how Buffett is no longer looking like…… Read More

Wednesday Evening Links

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[Reuters] Wall Street’s major stock indexes plunge as coronavirus anxiety grows [Reuters] U.S. dollar gains as global recession looms [Reuters] Treasuries – Longer-term yields fall on growing worries over pandemic’s impact [Reuters] US leveraged loans frozen as market grapples with new normal [Reuters] Trump invites Big Oil to discuss help for ailing industry [Reuters] U.S. shale company Whiting becomes first major… Read More

Wednesday’s News Links

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[CNBC] Dow futures fall more than 200 points after market posts worst first quarter on record [Reuters] Asian shares hold on to gains but virus keeps markets on edge [Reuters] Oil prices mixed, U.S. inventory build-up heightens oversupply concerns [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: HSBC, Standard Chartered shares fall after lenders cancel dividend payments [Yahoo/Bloomberg] Fed Takes on Role of World’s… Read More

Tuesday Afternoon Links

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[CNBC] Dow rises 100 points as it tries to end its worst first quarter ever on a high note [Reuters] Trump calls for $2 trillion infrastructure bill to help economy during coronavirus crisis [CNBC] Gov. Cuomo says coronavirus is ‘more dangerous’ than expected as New York cases jump 14% overnight to 75,795 [Reuters] Cash-starved Latam companies rush for credit… Read More

THE PROBLEMS WITH OIL

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Before we get to the meat of today’s post, I want to share a recent development on the virus front that has provided me a little comfort (and I suspect the rest of the market as well). Although the current situation is worrisome, one of my “nightmare scenarios” was that somehow an individual could get… Read More

Tuesday’s News Links

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[Reuters] Asia shares edge up, China factories show flicker of life [Reuters] Dollar up, but yuan sluggish as traders skeptical of China PMI bounce [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: WHO special envoy tells countries to ‘act quickly’ as global cases climb [Reuters] Japan’s factory output slows, plunge seen as virus grips economy [Reuters] China March factory activity unexpectedly expands, but outlook… Read More

Monday Afternoon Links

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[Reuters] Wall St. gains as investors weigh stimulus against shutdown [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: Maryland issues strict penalties for stay-at-home order violations, USNS Comfort arrives in NYC [CNBC] Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate may hit 32%, Fed estimates [Reuters] Deaths, intubations swamp New Orleans doctors in coronavirus surge [The Hill] Governor issues stay-at-home order for South… Read More

Monday’s News Links

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[Reuters] Asia shares suffer virus chills, central banks offer what they can [Reuters] Dollar, yen up as investors seek shelter amid pandemic crisis [Reuters] China unexpectedly cuts reverse repo rate by most in 5 yrs to support virus-hit economy [CNBC] Coronavirus live updates: Global cases of reported infections exceed 700,000 [Yahoo/Bloomberg] China Rejoins Global Monetary Easing Wave as World Shutdowns… Read More

Sunday Evening Links

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[CNBC] Dow futures drop more than 300 points as Wall Street gives back some of last week’s gains [Reuters] Crude oil futures drop at open on grim demand outlook [CNBC] President Trump extends national social distancing guidelines through April 30 [CNBC] ‘Nothing is out of the question’: What it would take for the Fed to start buying stocks Source:… Read More

COULD GOLD BE A WIN-WIN?

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I’ve spent the weekend doing a lot of thinking about the economy, markets and the effects of the virus on our society. Although I’ve tried to stress that all three are not as correlated as many market participants believe (especially over the short run), neither are they completely independent (especially over the longer run). There… Read More