December Monthly

December Monthly

The pandemic is still with us as the year winds down and has not yet become endemic, like the seasonal flu.  Even before the new Omicron variant was sequenced, Europe was being particularly hard hit, and social restrictions, especially among the unvaccinated, were spurring social strife.  US cases, notably in the Midwest, were rising, and there is fear that it is 4-6 weeks behind Europe […]

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Gold Fields Outlines 1 2bn Spend To Meet Ten Year 30 Emissions Reduction Target

Gold Fields outlines $1.2bn spend to meet ten-year, 30% emissions reduction target

GOLD Fields has budgeted an outlay of $320m as it seeks to reduce emissions 30% by 2030, according to the publication of its environmental, sustainability and governance (ESG) targets today. Including power purchase agreements from independent power producers, the firm’s capital outlay rises to $1.2bn. Gold Fields CEO, Chris Griffith said that order to reach a 30% reduction target from its 2016 baseline, the company […]

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Is A Stock Market Crash Like 2000 Possible

Is A Stock Market Crash Like 2000 Possible?

Print Friendly Is A Stock Market Crash Like 2000 Possible? “Say say two thousand zero zero party over, oops, out of timeSo tonight I’m gonna party like it’s nineteen ninety-nine” -Prince 1999 Prince wrote the song “1999” in 1982, 18 years before the clock ran out on the 20th century and possibly the greatest stock market run in American history. In 1999, equity valuations stood […]

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The United States Gets Even Closer To War With Both Russia And China

The United States Gets Even Closer To War With Both Russia And China

While most of the U.S. population is distracted by other matters, the Biden administration continues to march us even closer to war with both Russia and China.  It is understandable that so much attention is being given to the craziness surrounding the COVID pandemic, our very serious economic problems and the growing violence in our streets, but ultimately our deteriorating relationships with Russia and China […]

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Gold Silver And Mining Stocks Patience Will Be Rewarded

Gold, Silver And Mining Stocks: Patience Will Be Rewarded

Note: This commentary is from the November 25th issue of the Mining Stock Journal Without question, investing in the precious metals sector has been a pain in the ass for nearly the entire 20 years I’ve been involved. The official intervention, which has become shamelessly blatant, is the primary reason. But also, speculative capital floods into the sector when a big move looks ready to […]

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Graphite Prices Heading Higher On Market Tightness

Graphite prices heading higher on market tightness

2021.11.30 As expected, the electrification of the global transportation system is creating strong tailwinds for the EV market. Power Technology, known for its research on the energy sector, reports that EV sales more than doubled in the first half of 2021, increasing by 160% compared to H1 2020. The 2.6 million units sold, 1.1 million of which were in China, represent 26% of total new […]

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Portfolio Trade Alert 11 29 21

Portfolio Trade Alert – 11-29-21

Print Friendly Portfolio Trade Alert For 11-29-21 Top 10-Buys and Sells From TPA Research Click on RIAPro+ today to add TPA Research to your subscription for just $20/month.  November 22, 2021 *** Portfolio Trading Alert ***  – Equity Model Only We sold Verizon (VZ) in the equity model this morning for tax-loss harvesting. We have a lot of gains to offset this year from profit-taking.  While […]

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Pessimistic Omicron Assessment Squashes Risk Appetites

Pessimistic Omicron Assessment Squashes Risk Appetites

Overview: A pessimistic assessment offered by the CEO of Moderna shattered the fragile calm seen yesterday after the pre-weekend turmoil.  Risk appetites shriveled, sending equity markets lower and the bond markets higher.  Funding currencies rallied, with the euro and yen moving above last week’s highs.  The uncertainty weighs on sentiment and makes investors question what they previously were certain of.   The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell […]

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Here Comes The Omicron Variant

Here Comes the “Omicron” Variant

Last Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 905 points, or 2.53%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes had similar falls, about 2.25% each. It was the worst Black Friday performance in history. Usually stocks rally on news of shoppers breaking down doors to buy bargains. The reason for the decline was reported to be new fears of the COVID pandemic in the form of […]

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Porphyry Hunting In The Golden Triangle With Mountain Boy Minerals

Porphyry hunting in the Golden Triangle with Mountain Boy Minerals

2021.11.30 The mining industry is on the hunt for large deposits that have favorable grades and are in locations amenable to mine developments. The Golden Triangle of northwestern British Columbia is an excellent place to shore up new copper supply and to build smelting and refining capacity. The GT is one of the most richly mineralized areas on the planet, hosting large deposits of copper, […]

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Glencore Faces Renewed Pressure From Activist Investor To Hive Off Coal Assets

Glencore faces renewed pressure from activist investor to hive off coal assets

GLENCORE is facing renewed calls to hive off its coal assets, said Bloomberg News citing a letter from Bluebell Capital Partners, an activist investor which owns a stake in the Swiss-headquartered firm. A letter from London-based Bluebell Capital Partners to Glencore, seen by Bloomberg News, said: “Due to its coal business, Glencore is not an investible company for investors who place sustainability at the heart […]

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Market Correction Before The Santa Rally Has Started

Market Correction Before The Santa Rally Has Started

Print Friendly Last week, we asked if there would be a market correction before “Santa visits Broad and Wall?” “Investors’ ‘wish lists’ are hung by the chimney with care, hopeful the ‘Santa Claus rally’ will soon be there. While they remain ‘snug in their beds, the historical data dances in the heads.’ The chart below from @themarketear shows the annual “seasonality” from 1985 through 2019. […]

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Implats Urges Rbplat Shareholders To Act Now While M Amp A Buzz Elevates Share Price

Implats urges RBPlat shareholders to act now while M&A buzz elevates share price

Nico Muller, CEO, Impala Platinum SHAREHOLDERS in Royal Bafokeng Platinum (RBPlat) would be “cognisant of market risk” that in the absence of merger and acquisition activity shares in the company were likely to fall below current levels, said Nico Muller, CEO of Impala Platinum (Implats). Muller was commenting shortly after Monday’s announcement that the platinum group metal (PGM) firm intended to launch a general offer […]

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Viking Analytics Weekly Gamma Band Update 11 29 2021

Viking Analytics: Weekly Gamma Band Update 11/29/2021

We share the Weekly Gamma Bands Update by Viking Analytics. The report uses options gamma to help you better manage risk and your equity allocations. Gamma Band Update The S&P 500 (SPX) fell sharply on Friday, closing on the lows and below the end-of-day gamma flip level near 4,620.  Our model cut SPX exposure to 30%. The Gamma Band model[1] is a simplified trend following […]

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Sentiment Remains Fragile

Sentiment Remains Fragile

Overview: The fire that burnt through the capital markets before the weekend, triggered by the new Covid mutation, burned itself out in the Asian Pacific equity trading earlier today. A semblance of stability, albeit fragile and tentative, has emerged. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is up about 1%, led by real estate, information technology, and energy.  US index futures are trading higher, with the NASDAQ leading.  Benchmark […]

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迫在眉睫的供应缺口呼唤新一批铜矿项目

迫在眉睫的供应缺口呼唤新一批铜矿项目

2021.11.29 铜广泛用于建筑、发电和输电,使其成为民用基础设施更新的关键金属。 Roskill 预测,在人口和GDP增长、城市化和电力需求的推动下,到2035年世界铜消费总量将超过4300万吨。 这十年,随着全球对汽车电气化的推动,对铜的需求即将起飞,因为典型的电动汽车 (EV) 使用的金属大约是普通内燃机 (ICE) 汽车的四倍。 咨询公司 AlixPartners 估计,目前仅占全球汽车总销量2%的电动汽车到2030年将占总销量的24%。据预测,到2025年,对电动汽车的投资总额可能达到3300亿美元。 为了在2030年使美国新车总数的一半成为电动汽车,总统拜登已经呼吁政府支出1740亿美元来推动电动汽车的发展,其中包括1000亿美元的消费者激励措施。 这些措施肯定会给全球铜业带来压力。该行业自2000年代以来就已经遭受多年投资不足的困扰,导致缺乏正在开发的新矿。 彭博新能源财经表示,20年后,铜矿商需要将全球铜产量翻一倍才能满足对电动汽车30%渗透率的需求 — 从目前的每年2000万吨增加到4000万吨。 电气化不仅包括汽车,还包括卡车、火车、运货车、建筑设备以及电动自行车、摩托车和踏板车等两轮车辆;所以铜的使用量肯定会高于预期。 充电站和可再生能源也需要铜,特别是用于太阳能发电的光伏电池和风力涡轮机。 CRU集团的数据显示,到2030年的10年内,全球绿色能源部门的铜消耗量将增长五倍。 全球能源咨询公司 Wood Mackenzie 表示,总体而言,为了实现社会基础设施的电气化并实现1.5˚C的全球变暖轨迹,未来二十年将需要大约50万亿美元的投资。 资料来源: Wood Mackenzie 资料来源: Wood Mackenzie 根据 WoodMac 较为宽松的加速能源转型-2(AET-2)方案,这与将前工业化时代以来全球气温上升限制在2°C是一致的,在未来20年中,大约需要1900万吨铜来供应能源转型,这意味着额外的供应增加了85%(参见上图)。 这是当今生产商必须克服的挑战,不仅是现在,而且是在未来二十年甚至更长的时间里。 供不应求 据 S&P Global Market Intelligence (标准普尔全球市场情报) 预测,由于项目短缺,从长期来看,供应将滞后于需求。 尽管这家总部位于纽约的分析公司预计2021年和2025年的矿产铜产量将从2020年的211.6万吨分别增至218.7万吨和261.4万吨,但这并不能阻止2025年后的供应缺口。 现有铜矿(包括精矿和溶剂萃取电积)的产量预计将在2021-2025年以1.0%的复合年增长率增长,但由于矿石品位下降和矿山关闭,2026-2020年的复合年增长率将下降至4.7%。 这些矿山包括嘉能可 (Glencore) 拥有33.75%的 Antamina(必和必拓 (BHP) 33.75%、泰克资源 (Teck Resources) 22.5%、三菱 (Mitsubishi) 10%)、Codelco 的 Radomiro Tomic 和泰克的 Highland Valley。 因此,现有运营矿山的产量 — 不考虑那些正在启动、项目扩张或矿山重启的资产 — […]

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Caledonia Mining To Issue More Shares In Victoria Falls Exchange Debut

Caledonia Mining to issue more shares in Victoria Falls Exchange debut

CALEDONIA Mining Corporation will increase a planned capital raising as a result of listing  on Zimbabwe’s newly created Victoria Falls Stock Exchange (VFEX). It will now raise $7.96m from the issue of approximately 630,000 new shares at an offer price of $12.64 per depositary receipt. The proceeds of the offer would be used for general corporate purposes in Zimbabwe, the company said. This followed an […]

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This Thanksgiving Weekend Proved That America Is Now Living In A Very Dark New Reality

This Thanksgiving Weekend Proved That America Is Now Living In A Very Dark New Reality

The entire narrative around “Black Friday” has completely changed.  In the old days, I would write a column every year about the chaos that we would see at major retailers all over America as crazed consumers fought over deeply discounted merchandise.  The fact that Americans would get so crazed over cheap trinkets made in China said a lot about where we were as a society, […]

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