Some Seriousness In The Silly Beige

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ABOOK July 2019 Beige Book

I confess to following the Beige Book lately for mostly entertainment purposes. It was always an exercise in intellectual vanity, an opportunity for Fed Presidents to cram into it their own biases. But to see the FOMC just abandon the LABOR SHORTAGE!!! like they have, that’s not strictly about amusement; though it is to some… Read More

Modern Monetary Theory, Centralized Control And Gold

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My friend and colleague, Chris Powell, Treasurer of GATA, wrote a compelling essay on Modern Monetary Theory. MMT has been in operation by the western Central Banks since Bretton Woods. The “QE” program that began in 2008 is the most recent and blatant implementation of MMT. This is a must-read if you are interesting in… Read More

Not A Paradox Nor A Conundrum: TICked at Powell

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ABOOK July 2019 TIC Official 6m

It seems a paradox, at least like it is backwards. The financial media doesn’t help because good editorial standards rely upon the opinions and beliefs of credentialed people who have no idea what they are talking about. If you hold high office in some central bank, we are to assume you are competent about monetary… Read More

Monthly Macro Monitor: We’re Not There Yet

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fredgraph 2019 07 17T113441.887

It’s been a slow turnin’ From the inside out A slow turnin’ But you come about   Slow learnin’ But you learn to sway A slow turnin’ baby Not fade away   Now I’m in my car I got the radio on I’m yellin’ at the kids in the back ‘Cause they’re bangin’ like Charlie… Read More

Globally Synchronized, After All

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ABOOK July 2019 Retail Sales YY

For there to be a second half rebound, there has to be some established baseline growth. Whatever might have happened, if it was due to “transitory” factors temporarily interrupting the economic track then once those dissipate the economy easily gets back on track because the track itself was never bothered. More and more, though, it… Read More

Pouring Over Poor Singapore’s Far Nastier Number Four

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ABOOK July 2019 Europe IP Singapore GDP QQ

You aren’t going to find the worst economic quarter in Singapore’s modern history in either 2008 or 2009. It was actually posted in 2010. During the third quarter of that year, GDP declined by a whopping 11% annual rate. While that’s the biggest contraction still on record, initial government estimates thought it was closer to… Read More

China’s Managed Decline Manages Another Quarter

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The latest batch of economic from China featured a little something for everyone. For those thinking about a second half rebound, retail sales gained nearly 10% in June. It was the first time near to double digits since March 2018. At the other end of the spectrum, Real GDP rose just 6.2% year-over-year in the… Read More

Could A Deutsche Bank Collapse Crash The Markets?

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“I don’t think it’s any coincidence that gold runs from $1285 to as high as $1445 around the time that all the news about Deutsche Bank started coming out” [the failure to merge with Commerzbank followed by the “good bank / bad bank” split announcement]. Deutsche Bank is being prevented from collapsing by the German… Read More

The Lying Statistics Behind Globally Synchronized Growth, And What It Could Mean For The Globally Synchronized Downturn

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ABOOK July 2019 China ExIm Commodities

Numbers really don’t tell us much all by themselves. Context always matters. That’s why 19th century British statesman Benjamin Disraeli claimed there are three kinds of lies; lies, damned lies, and statistics. Numbers employed in isolation are either misleading or useless. In the 20th century, Darrell Huff wrote in his classic How To Lie With… Read More