Technically Speaking: Risk Of A Bigger Correction Rising

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In this past weekend’s missive “Market’s Cling To Support,” I noted the early February correction process where we saw a similar short-term bottoming process where the initial bounce failed then bounced in mid-March before failing again to retest the February lows.  On Monday, the market broke through the 200-dma which puts portfolio management on high alert.… Read More

Why Bitcoin May Be On The Verge Of A Powerful Move

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After its powerful surge in late-2017 and stunning plunge in early-2018, Bitcoin’s volatility has died down significantly as it settles into a narrowing range just above its key $6,000 support level. This narrowing pattern appears to be a descending triangle, which has very bearish implications if the cryptocurrency breaks below the key $6,000 support level… Read More

End Of The Rate Hike Cycle In 2019?

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This article was originally published on UPFINA. Reading Time: 5 minutes In a previous article we showed a chart which had central bank tightening listed as a contributing factor for 29 out of the past 45 recessions in G7 nations. This article will review the latest Fed policy in a quantitative manner. First let’s review the… Read More

An Investor’s Desktop Guide To Trading

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Throughout history, individuals have been drawn into the more speculative stages of the financial market under the assumption that “this time is different.” Of course, as we now know with the benefit of hindsight, 1929, 1972, 1999, 2007, and most likely 2019, were not different – they were just the peak of speculative investing frenzies. Of… Read More

Kass: An Open Letter To Larry Kudlow

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“We believe that free market capitalism is the best path to prosperity!” – The Kudlow Creed Dear Larry, You and I go way back – we have been friends for many years. I deliver this letter to you out of respect and in recognition of that friendship. It is being submitted and is intended to be respectful,… Read More

You Are Different This Time

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You don’t always see a respected member of the financial commentariat argue that it’s different this time. But that’s almost what Morningstar’s Christine Benz has done in an excellent recent article. What Benz means is that you’re different now than you were during past market cycles. More specifically, you’re older now than you were during… Read More

Insider Weekly: The Circular Reference

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To read the rest of this article, you’ll need to sign up to Insider, our subscription service taking you “backstage” in the world of asymmetric investing & money management. As well as ongoing market commentary, members get specific trade recommendations from Chris MacIntosh & Co. on opportunities where the target return is often 1000%+. LEARN MORE HERE If you’re an… Read More

Market Clings To Support 10-19-18

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Clinging To Support Tops Are Processes – A Review Actions To Take Next Week Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Clinging To Support Over the last couple of weeks, as interest rates surged above 3%, we explored the question of whether something had “just broken” in… Read More

These Sectors & Companies Are Most Exposed To Higher Rates

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This article was originally published on UPFINA. Reading Time: 5 minutes There are three main types of debt: household debt, corporate debt, and government debt. We think the most debate surrounds corporate debt because it is understood households have deleveraged this cycle and government debt has gotten worse. To be clear, there are debate on those… Read More

Memos from Howard Marks

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  What are the elements that have created the current investment environment?  In my view, they’re these:   In order to counter the contractionary effects of the Crisis, the world’s central banks flooded their economies with liquidity and made credit available at artificially low interest rates. This caused the yields on investments at the safer… Read More

Chairman Powell – You’re Fired

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“I’m a low interest rate person” – Donald Trump 2016 On Donald Trump’s hit TV show, The Apprentice, contestants competed to be Trump’s chief apprentice. Predictably, each show ended when the field of contestants was narrowed down by the firing of a would-be apprentice. While the show was pure entertainment, we suspect Trump’s management style… Read More

VLOG: Why The Stock Market Is Heading For Disaster

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In this presentation, Clarity Financial’s economic analyst Jesse Colombo explains why the U.S. stock market is experiencing a dangerous bubble that is going to burst violently and cause serious damage to the underlying economy. Jesse and Clarity Financial have been very wary of following the overcrowded “buy and hold” strategy when the market is so… Read More

Your Guide to The Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Meeting

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This post is brought to you by Finbox.io. Sign up for your completely FREE trial today! For three days in early May, over 40,000 investors and spectators will flock to the city of Omaha Nebraska to attend what many call the “Woodstock for Capitalist.” The annual Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE: BRK.A) Shareholder meeting attracts crowds… Read More

A Recession by 2020?

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The current situation with the proposed tariffs between China and the US is somewhere in between a trade war and negotiation tactics. We’ll call it a “trade battle” because we don’t know what the end game of this war of words and proposals will lead to. Both sides are dependent on one another; since their… Read More

An “Earnings Driven” Meme

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“A meme (/ˈmiːm/ MEEM) is an idea, behavior, or style that spreads from person to person within a culture – often with the aim of conveying a particular phenomenon, theme, or meaning represented by the meme. A meme acts as a unit for carrying cultural ideas, symbols, or practices, that can be transmitted from one mind to another… Read More

The Bridgewater Culture and “Principles” of Ray Dalio

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Westport, Connecticut-based Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund firm in the world, was one of the first to “embrace quantitative analysis,” according to a recent article in The New York Times that  delves into the idiosyncrasies of the Bridgewater culture—both positive and negative—on what it terms a “rigid and sometimes oppressive work environment.” The article… Read More

How I Became a Gold-Bug

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My father was Hugo Salinas Rocha -“Salinas” was his father’s surname, and “Rocha” was his mother’s surname; the custom of using both parents’ surnames is universal in Latin America. Father was a successful merchant in Mexico City, and in the 1930’s he ran a store in downtown Mexico City. The store belonged to a company… Read More