US Import, Export Prices Tumble As China Exports Most Deflation Since 2007

With import and export prices growth having slowed almost non-stop for six months – tracking China’s collapsing credit impulse – expectations were for a further acceleration in January…

And they did – both import and export prices indices tumbled more than expected into deflationary territory:

  • Import Prices dropped 1.7% YoY – weakest since Nov 2015

  • Export Prices dropped 0.2% YoY – weakest since Jan 2016

Under the hoods:

  • Import prices ex-fuels fell 0.2% after no change in Dec.

  • Import prices ex-petroleum fell 0.7% after rising 0.3% in Dec.

  • Import prices ex-food and fuel unchanged y/y in Jan.

  • Industrial supplies prices fell 1.7% after falling 3.8% in Dec.

  • Auto prices fell 0.2% after rising 0.1% in Dec.

  • Consumer goods prices fell 0.3% after rising 0.1% in Dec.

  • Export prices fell 0.6% after falling 0.6% in Dec.

  • Export prices ex-agriculture fell 0.3% after falling 1.1% in Dec.

Notice a trend?

Led by the most deflationary export print from China since Dec 2007…

Another not-inflation print that provides cover for The Fed to remain on the sidelines – but is this reason to buy stocks? A Deflationary impulse is rippling through the global economy and its baked in the cake – no matter what China does now to stimulate, there’s a lag.


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